This World Cup really seems to be out to prove that i can't pick winners for s@$#. After seeing Argentina fall on Friday morning, Veronica and i got in a day of work before driving down to L.A., arriving at Dionne and Matthew's at 3am and falling asleep immediately after being groggily welcomed by Matthew and a perkier Cinnamon. I set my cell phone to wake me at 8am and emerged to find Matthew, Kevin, and Dionne on the couch soaking in the pre-game of the England/Portugal semifinal showdown. We settled in to watch the match with some donuts graciously provided by Kevin.

Despite my repeated statements of displeasure with England's poor showings, against my better judgement i picked them to reach the semifinals. Mainly because Portugal haven't been overpowering either, and were playing with key defensive midfielder Costinha and playmaker Deco due to suspension. The wily but overrated Cristiano Ronaldo was also a doubt because of a nasty thigh injury he picked up in the previous match against the Netherlands. My first inkling that i had erred again occurred when Ronaldo was named in the starting lineup, and began the match looking his usual showboating self. The first half played out with England marginally on top, creating the better opportunities although Frank Lampard was again anonymous and Joe Cole was oddly out of the flow of the game. But even going into halftime without a goal to their credit, it seemed England were destined to emerge victorious.

That is, until Wayne Rooney's frustration boiled over and he stood on Ricardo Carvalho's gonads while walking over him. Replays were inconclusive ... it very well could have been an accident, despite the footballing press's confidence that the young firebrand knew exactly what he was doing. Amazingly, Rooney's Manchester United teammate Ronaldo tattled to the ref on him, and after a brief scuffle between the two, Rooney was shown a red card. With captain David Beckham having already been subbed because of an ankle injury, England's leadership was decimated. Despite being a man down they struggled on valiantly, and arguably created more chances to win than their opponents over the rest of regulation. However, to England's horror the match went scoreless all the way to penalties. For some reason, England's confidence in taking penalties is shot ... there was a sense of finality as soon as the ref blew the end of extra time. And sure enough, Lampard (an automatic penalty converter for Chelsea), Steven Gerrard, and Jamie Carragher all missed ... the Portuguese keeper looked good in saving them, but he isn't THAT good. And the Portuguese celebrated their win, and many of the England players broke down in frustrated tears, and Sven Goran Eriksson did his usual "oh well" in his last match as England manager. History repeats itself (England goes out to Portugal on penalties, quarterfinals, Euro 2004).

So another of my final four was out. This one i should've known. Despite playing admirably a man down for the last 60 minutes of the match, England again showed little of the skill and strategy that you would expect from a team with this many individual talents. I have no idea what happened to Lamps ... he had such a bad tournament i'm now wondering if it will spill over into his performances for Chelsea next season. David Beckham resigned as England captain the next day, about two years too late if you ask me. Blues stalwart John Terry is tipped to be the next skipper, but you have to wonder if teams under his charge will fare any better when Eriksson protege Steve McClaren is running the show on the sidelines. Rooney may be in for a rough Premiership season, experiencing the kind of villification that Beckham received when he was sent off against Argentina in England's fatal 1998 World Cup loss. Although i kind of doubt it, because Beckham's treatment was as much a reaction to his flash, pretty boy image as his crime and its consequences. He continues to plead his innocence, claiming the stamp was accidental, and he may have a point. An astute commentator however pointed out that he may have bad blood for Carvalho from their United-Chelsea encounters. Especially considering that Carvalho is close friends with Chelsea right back Paulo Ferreira, who made the tackle that precipitated Rooney's broken foot last spring.

The afternoon's quarterfinal didn't improve my prediction rate, as Brazil again failed to reach the heights of their beautiful game, and succumbed to a well-organized and well-orchestrated French squad. Zinedine Zidane is playing up to his legendary status, and Thierry Henry is occupying the lone striker role wonderfully. Especially now that he can pose a threat either by running the offense, or by diving and winning free kicks and cards. Ponce. Brazil meanwhile never looked like a real attacking force. About halfway through the second half i realized that i'd heard Ronaldinho's name maybe twice all match. I'm not sure why Brazil manager Carlos Alberto Parreira had him all the way out on the left flank ... at Barcelona Ronaldinho has excelled playing either as a striker or just behind the forwards, being able to conduct the attack in a central role. At any rate, the South Americans were just plain outplayed by France, and deservedly lost. History repeats itself (France outclasses favored Brazil, finals, World Cup 1998).

So i got one team correct (Italy) in my final four. Pretty pathetic, but it gets worse. Seeing a not-particularly-talented German squad roll through the group stages and past heavyweights Argentina convinced me not to doubt the home field advantage, and i had suspicions that they would go on to lift the trophy in Berlin on July 9th. Wrong again, Teddo. For some reason in my preparations for my parents' July 4th barbecue, i completely forgot that the Germany/Italy semifinal was going on. So i missed it all, the 90 scoreless (but reportedly thrilling) minutes of regulation, the 28 scoreless minutes of extra time, and Fabio Grosso and Alessandro Del Piero's clinching goals just before the penalty shootout. Another Ted prediction bites the dust.

So what have i learned?

• Home field can get you far. But it can't get you all the way.
• England need a major rethink before they can escape their pattern of failure.
• Being hailed as the best footballing nation in the world doesn't win your games for you.

The second semifinal between France and Portugal is beginning in 45 minutes. I tip France to advance to create a rematch of the Euro 2000 final, with similar results. Which means bet the house on Portugal.